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In November, Poland’s foreign trade surplus stood at nearly 3.2 billion euros. That is the best result in history.

According to information published on Monday by the National Bank of Poland, trade in goods showed a surplus of 829 million euros following 427 million euros in October. A month before that, in September, the surplus amounted to 830 million euros and was the largest since at least 2004.

On top of that, in November Poland's services account was in surplus. It showed 2.33 billion euros, again the best result since these records began in 2004.

Between January and November, Poland's trade in goods account surplus was nearly 2.2 billion euros and 22.3 billion euros for trade in services. For comparison, in the corresponding period in 2018, overall surplus amounted to 16.4 billion euros.

The improved trade in goods account balance of payments is partly attributed to the economic slowdown, which stifled imports. In November Polish goods imports decreased by 4.6 per cent y/y, the biggest drop since June. Economists asked by "Parkiet" usually expected November, which saw imports decrease by 0.1. per cent y/y, to be similar to October in this respect.

The value of Polish goods exported in November decreased by 1 per cent y/y after a 4 per cent rise in October. Economists expected an average increase in exports of 0.9 per cent y/y, but the negative result is not overly surprising. In November the calendar was not favourable for exports (less working days than in the corresponding month in 2018) and the impact of this factor on the trade result is difficult to foresee.

The improving trade balance of payments in 2019 was conducive to the Polish economy's growth rate. In Q3, net exports contributed as much as 0.8 per cent to GDP’s growth. Monday's NBP data suggests that in this respect Q4 was similar. In the opinion of many economists, in 2020 trade balance of payments will also have a stabilising effect on the economy.

Source: Rzeczpospolita