Polish economy grew by 4.0 percent in 2019 according to estimates from Statistics Poland, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than the expectations of analysts, who put the drop down to consumers spending less and saving more.

“The economy will grow by at least 3.7 percent,” in 2020, the Polish Finance Minister Tadeusz Kościński said, describing himself as “an optimist.’”

The “dark clouds" affecting the global economy are distancing, the Minister said, referring to Brexit and the US-China trade conflict. “Everything which is certain is good for business, he said.

Industrial production rose by 4.2 percent in 2019, a slight slowdown from 4.6 percent in 2018, while construction grew at 2.8 percent, compared to a high base of 12.2 percent growth in 2018.

Meanwhile household consumer spending growth remained fairly buoyant at 3.5 percent, down only 0.4 percentage points from 2018. Nevertheless ING’s economists pointed out that the drop consumption figures were a result of households prefering to save their extra money they had in hand from wage increases and increases in benefits, with a ten percent increase in savings deposits this year.

For ING the saving grace in 2019 was that exports were higher than might be expected, bearing in mind the slowdown in German exports to China. In their opinion this was due to the strong internal market in Euroland, to which most Polish exports are directed.

The levels of exports at the end of the year were a disappointment for PKO BP’s analysts. they see exports they see as ‘“the biggest risk to growth in 2020”.

However, both banks think it unlikely that the National Bank of Poland will change interest rates either to stimulate growth or to tackle inflation, which stood at 3.4 percent at the end of 2019.

In light of the GDP figures, analysts are lowering their estimates for growth in 2020. ING now predicts 3.0 percent growth, while PKO BP says it is likely to revise its previous forecast of 3.6 percent downwards.

source: GUS/PAP/POLANDIN