Recently, a friend of mine, citizen of a country where governments do not change every four – or even eight – years, asked me about the upcoming parliamentary elections in Poland. The further we delved into the meanders of our political discourse, the more difficult I found it to describe to him what it actually boils down to in Polish politics. As how do you explain to a foreigner, that a party which labels itself as right-wing is introducing social mechanisms which no other government thus far was bold enough to implement? On the other hand that a party, which ever since it was begotten (which was not so long ago - 2002), has been considered as Christian democratic and liberal-conservative is swerving left and is standing shoulder to shoulder with former communist apparatchiks in the European elections? I am finding it hard to get my head around this. How is someone who, as I'd like to emphasise, functions in a mature and responsible democracy, to understand that? And what about political programme differences? Surely everyone wants only the good of the people and a powerful state...
Let's take a look at the major points on the political programmes of the four leading electoral committees, whose representatives are likely to have a seat in the Polish Sejm in autumn. These are Law and Justice, Civic Coalition, Polish Coalition, The Left and Freedom and Independence Confederation.
Law and Justice is a party with an elaborate social programme taking into account that it is a national - right wing party with a strong inclination for statism.
The politicians from this party are promising to persevere with social benefits, part of their "500 plus" flagship programme (a 500 złotys benefit for each child). Apart from continuing with the current programmes: "Family 500 plus", help with school starter packs the so called "300 plus", zero PIT 37 for young people (up to 26 years old), PiS activists are also promising:
- to increase the minimum wage to PLN 2600 from January 2019; and up to gross PLN 4000 by the end of 2023,
- to set personal allowance at PLN 24,000 for every citizen,
- to pay two "thirteenth" monthly pensions,
- to establish a fund for modernising health care facilities, with an initial budget of PLN 2 billion,
- to establish a Special 100 Ring-Roads Fund and a School Investment Fund,
- to refurbish 150 train stations within the scope of the "Railway plus" programme,
- to increase penalties for littering,
- to take steps with the aim of supporting a traditional model of the family.
Civic Coalition (KO) constitutes the main albeit incompetent opposition party PiS has to contend with; such an opinion is shared by both its critics as well as circles profoundly unfavourable towards the incumbent government; an alliance between the Civic Platform, Modern, The Greens and other (left wing) political plankton. Famous for its members running off to Brussels to complain about the Polish government which in their opinion is not complying with European standards. In their political programme KO politicians are promising the following:
- to increase the wages of professionally active individuals by reducing tax and social insurance contributions,
- support for those on the minimum wage in the form of a PLN 600 monthly bonus,
- to create starter packs for young people just starting their professional lives,
- to cancel trade-free Sundays (according to legislation adopted by the incumbent government, only the last Sunday of a month is a "trading Sunday" - slightly simplified for argument's sake),
- equal wages for men and women,
- improvement of the health care system,
- introduction of a thirteenth pension and construction of day care centres for seniors,
- pay raises for teachers,
- fighting air pollution by eliminating coal use as heating fuel – both for residential purposes and by 2040 in the power industry.
Polish Coalition (KP) is quite an exotic political alliance which brings together the peasant power of the Polish People's Party (PSL) and the populist right-wing Kukiz’15 (established by Paweł Kukiz, a former rock artist, a star of the last campaign). After their defeat in the European Parliamentary elections, PSL authorities decided to cut loose from their cooperation with the Civic Platform and the post-communists with whom People's Party activists had to appear on the same lists of candidates. The new alliance seems to have been a bull's eye – KP's poll ratings have increased by another 2% (which is already being dubbed as the "Kukiz effect") and they have now edged in front of The Left.
The political programme of the movements working together within this framework includes promises such as:
- introduction of a mixed voting system – at least half the seats in the Sejm are to be decided in single member constituencies,
- obligatory referendums,
- "My own corner" programme introducing PLN 50,000 grants for young people,
- introduction of a "Peace Adjudicator" institution, elected in local communities able to adjudicate in petty court cases,
- voluntary ZUS contributions for entrepreneurs,
- tax free pensions and construction of retirement homes in very commune,
- increased public spending on health care up to 6.6% of GDP (as compared to the current 4.9%),
- improved national energy security: prohibition of Russian coal imports
On the other hand The Left presents itself as the only progressive force in Polish politics. The electoral committee is made up of left-wing movements which will contend in the elections under a shared banner. These are the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), an n'th reincarnation of the Polish United Workers' Party; Spring led by the former President of Słupsk, Robert Biedroń, a political who is popular in the media, actively engaged in activities associated with the LGBT movement; and Adrian Zandberg's Together Party. The Left declares its intention to look after the ordinary people. Its economic and social proportions are similar to those pursued by the ruling party. Whereas in terms of world views, this committee is entertaining major changes. Faced with a popular social programme effectively followed by PiS, all The Left can do is emphasise its moral postulates. And that is why we will find that financial promises, which tend to be the focal point of public opinion, also include those which refer directly to world view related matters:
- minimum wage increased to PLN 2,700,
- minimum net pension of PLN 1,600,
- cheap flats for rent available to newlyweds; incorporation of a public developer to build such flats,
- school starter pack (analogous to the PiS 300+ programme) and free nurseries,
- 7% of GDP to be spent on the health care system; drugs refund system to be changed,
- an anti-smog regulation in every province; regular air quality monitoring,
- contraceptives and abortion available on-demand,
- religion lessons withdrawn from schools,
- sex education starting in pre-school and until A'levels,
- in-vitro treatment costs refunded,
- same rights for individuals cohabiting in marriages and partner based relationships.
Parties on the right of the Polish political scene have a ling track record of coming together into ephemeral assemblages and formations of various shapes, which then – as a result of the leaders' personal animosities, or programme differences (noticeable only to "real right-wingers") – disintegrate and transform. The Freedom and Independence Confederation achieved surprising popularity (at one time it was said to have been worrying for PiS). This movement comprises representatives of various right-wing groups, from national conservatists all the way to paleolibertarianists. It includes the KORWiN party, National Movement and the Christian Families Alliance (ZChR). This is the only group which opposes a statutory minimum wage. In recent years the Confederation's popularity seemed to grow exponentially, especially amongst the youngest voters.
The Confederates declare:
- low and simplified taxation,
- reduced bureaucracy,
- no obligatory social insurance contributions,
- income tax-exemptions for pensioners,
- strengthening of the Polish army, which is to guarantee national security,
- reduction of immigration from non-European countries,
- opposition to groundless Jewish property claims,
- protecting the youngest against "homo-propaganda".
Who will triumph in the upcoming elections? According to the polls, the ruling Law and Justice is most likely to win. However, polls may be wrong and as we all know some voters tend to be fickle, a lesson painfully learned by President Bronisław Komorowski in 2015, whose re-election seemed certain. Who will sit in the Polish parliament? Will PiS secure enough votes to rule independently and will the right-wing Confederation make the electoral threshold? How will ordinary Poles (92% of whom, according to the Polish Central Statistical Office, declare affiliation with the Roman Catholic Church) react to the left-wing programme delivering better access to abortions and equal right to same and different sex couples? Well, we shall find out on Sunday the 13th of October.
Tomasz F. Dzbeński, z wykształcenia prawnik (Wydział Prawa i Administracji UW), pasjonat historii konfliktów zbrojnych i strzelectwa sportowego. Przez kilkanaście lat mieszkał poza Polską, m. in. w Wielkiej Brytanii i RPA. Obecnie zawodowo związany z Instytutem Studiów Wschodnich, gdzie pracuje jako Coordinator for United Kingdom, Ireland and Commonwealth of Nations. Jego analizy dotyczące tematyki międzynarodowej ukazują się na łamach ogólnopolskich portali.