The ongoing Brexit generates questions about the future of the Polish diaspora on English soil. Thus far one of the most populous, today it is shrinking noticeably. What decisions will our fellow countrymen in the UK make? Should we expect mass returns, or will Polish emigrants be at home in the post-Brexit reality?
The fact that the British will leave the European Community is practically a foregone conclusion. However, the exit process is neither smooth nor elegant. Not only is the European Union, represented in this case by the negotiator Michael Baranier, not singing to the islanders’ tune, but they themselves are not yet able to find common ground. The Scots are threatening an independence referendum again. British Prime Minister Theresa May fell on the Brexit front. The new head of government, Boris Johnson, has ambitiously promised to leave the EU by the end of October 2019. He has already broken his promise - the Brexit date has recently been postponed to the end of January next year. This time it's finally over. Given the perturbations to date, it is difficult not to be sceptical, but let us assume that the parties will no longer postpone the date, and Johnson and Tusk will shake hands and say au revoir. However, many EC citizens will remain on the islands, including almost one million of our compatriots. What does Brexit mean for them? What are their plans and ideas for the future?
Rafał
- You know, if I had more savings and no commitments, like my son's education, I wouldn't even think about it. I'd pack, take the family, say goodbye and return to Poland – says Rafał.
Rafał has been living in London for several years now. He's always been in the construction industry. He runs his own business, he's doing well. My wife works at a school. Of course, there are some worse moments, but there are jobs in the UK.
- Do you know that despite the Brexit and the uncertainty that comes with it, London is still one big construction site? Behind Windsor they build housing estates with over three thousand houses. Apparently, the British developer is not afraid of the crisis - he adds.
Poles? They're leaving and you can see it. Especially in the decreasing number of Polish children in school. Recently, the parents of three children left for Poland from the school where Rafał's younger son studied. They sell real estate and go abroad, mainly to Poland. I think they've had enough of wandering around.
According to publicly available data, some 116 000 of our fellow countrymen have left the British Isles over the last year. Most of them returned to Poland. Why are they coming back? Are they afraid of the spectre of Brexit and the weakening of the pound's exchange rate, or do they think that after several years of staying abroad it is time to return to Poland?
The weak pound exchange rate does not frighten Rafał, because what he earns, he spends mainly where he lives. He has no investments in Poland that could be affected by the currency depreciation. Is he afraid of anything? Yeah, he is. A repeat of the 2011 situation, when riots broke out in London and other cities in the UK. If there were to be no goods on the shelves (which was used as a scare tactic against a "hard Brexit" i.e. exit from the structures of the European Union without any agreements), the crowd could take to the streets again.
Mateusz
In order to remain in the UK after a Brexit, you must be granted 'settled' or 'temporarily settled' status. EU citizens who do not obtain this status by the end of 2020 will lose their right to work and to be eligible for social benefits. However, so far only a small proportion, 38% of the one million Poles living in the UK have decided to fill in and send the form. And this after the appeal of the Polish ambassador, Arkady Rzegocki, who called on his fellow countrymen to act.
- It's as simple as ABC. You fill out an on-line form, provide your national insurance number to prove that you have been working legally for the last five years - says Mateusz. - Sometimes some papers have to be sent. The process is free. The fee, which initially amounted to more than GBP 60, was waived. It is worse for those working illegally or with a criminal record. Then you won't get the right of residence. They sift the grain from the chaff - he jokes.
Mateusz has lived in London for almost 17 years. He graduated in political science and law in Poland. Here, after years of running around with a tray in restaurants, he decided to use his abilities and attend accounting courses. He has constant contact with his fellow countrymen. There is a bank form to fill out, or a tax settlement. Many Poles, despite years spent in their foster homeland, speak little or no English.
- I don't know why so few people applied for settlement. Knowing our people, they are probably leaving it to the last minute - he adds. Some are tired of emigration and want to go back. Maybe they've come to the conclusion that they've had enough of this Western "prosperity". Others, sending money to Poland, are afraid of a weak pound exchange rate. With the high cost of living in the UK, a £1,000 to £1,300 a month job may not be worth parting with a family left behind in Poland and the difficult life of an immigrant. Can the decision to leave the country be influenced by the negative attitude of British people to migrants? Mateusz doesn't feel it. The fact is that shortly after the referendum which pulled Britain out of the EU, the atmosphere was 'dense'. On the wall of the Polish Social and Cultural Centre in London's Hammersmith district, a fighter for "English London" sprayed an inscription "Go Home" on the wall. But now? Peace and quiet. Some British politicians are apologising for the Polish-English alliance, which forged itself under fire during the Second World War and in whose beautiful history the heroism of the Squadron 303 pilots has inscribed itself. Are they afraid of Poles leaving the islands?
Mateusz’s is not affected by Brexit problems. He got a British passport two years ago. Will he come back? Of course he will. It is true that he is putting off the final decision from year to year, but he does not see a future for himself in the UK.
- When I left in 2002, Leszek Miller was Prime Minister, and unemployment was rocketing. Now it's experiencing an economic boom, the country has changed... Besides, I'm tired of being an emigrant - he admits.
Marek
Marek's coming back. He is 45 years old and has been living in England since 2002. He went "for a year", to improve his English, and stayed seventeen years. He did all kinds of work. He was a chef, driver, bartender, warehouse and office worker.
- I have never linked my future with Britain. I know that, given how many years I've spent on the islands, it sounds funny, but here time runs surprisingly fast – he says.
What's pushing him from London to Poland? I guess the tiredness of emigration, despite the fact that - as he emphasizes - it is easier to live on the islands. He does not care about the unstable rate of the pound, nor has he ever encountered any hostility from the British.
- During my stay here, I probably moved about fifteen times. I didn't have a place I could call "home". And in Poland, my parents grew old, small children grew older. And I'm only there once in a while: for Christmas, sometimes for holidays...
When the vision of Brexit appeared, Marek thought it might be a sign. That it's time to come back, that maybe it's the last moment to settle down in Poland and do something else with your life.
- I know many Poles who, despite many years spent abroad, did not find themselves at home here. Those like me have had enough, and they'll be coming back.
Joanna
Joanna has adapted to het new homeland. She lives in a small town in Suffolk. She has been living in the UK for eleven years now with her English husband and son. She will not be returning to Poland, she has already been granted the settled status. Brexit is not scary for her because she has been teaching biology and chemistry at a local school for years.
- I didn't feel any reluctance on the part of the locals. But I live in a small town (Framlingham has a little over 3000 inhabitants) and I don't know how it was in the bigger cities.
What is she afraid of in terms of Brexit? An economic meltdown for sure. The school she teaches at is a kind of microcosm. The private school brings together pupils from the UK and other parts of the world. If parents start earning less, they won't be able to afford tuition. Some of them, especially foreigners, will decide not to stay in the UK after the Brexit and will go back together with their children. Such an outflow of customers does not bode well for business, but Joanna does not intend to return to Poland anyway. This is my husband’s home and my son recently got a stable job in public transport.
- I don't live here because of money. I chose this place because it is better, more comfortable to live here," Joanna emphasizes.
Epilogue
Some Poles who have lived in Great Britain for over a dozen years have achieved their financial goals. Their children were born, their parents, left behind in Poland, have aged. And many people have already learned that emigrant life can be bitter. Older people are homesick, younger people, who thanks to the system of grants, completed education at British universities, see an opportunity to make or continue a career in Poland. Many, however, simply had to face the bitter reality. A hopeful, carefree twenty-year-old in a London full of temptations has a different perspective than a person, after years of flat sharing with similar individuals and no prospects for their own home.. Still, however, even in an uncertain England, it is easier to live and earn money. The question is how long for.
Tomasz F. Dzbeński, z wykształcenia prawnik (Wydział Prawa i Administracji UW), pasjonat historii konfliktów zbrojnych i strzelectwa sportowego. Przez kilkanaście lat mieszkał poza Polską, m. in. w Wielkiej Brytanii i RPA. Obecnie zawodowo związany z Instytutem Studiów Wschodnich, gdzie pracuje jako Coordinator for United Kingdom, Ireland and Commonwealth of Nations. Jego analizy dotyczące tematyki międzynarodowej ukazują się na łamach ogólnopolskich portali.